Mets -104 @ Cubs - Dickey has been lights out this year. So why are the Mets only -104? Probably because its a day game after a night game. And probably because they are a bad team too. Dickey hunhittable though. So lean to the Mets.

Brewers +225 @ Phillies - The Phillies bats have come alive (for one day at least). Maybe a change if scenery helped? Hamels has been brilliant. Capuano is a gascan. Price way to expensive anyway. Maybe put the Phills in a 2 or 3 team parlay.

[B]Nationals -101 @ Pirates - I like Hernandez in this...[/B]

Mets -104 @ Cubs - Dickey has been lights out this year. So why are the Mets only -104? Probably because its a day game after a night game. And probably because they are a bad team too. Dickey hunhittable though. So lean to the Mets.

Brewers +225 @ Phillies - The Phillies bats have come alive (for one day at least). Maybe a change if scenery helped? Hamels has been brilliant. Capuano is a gascan. Price way to expensive anyway. Maybe put the Phills in a 2 or 3 team parlay.

[B]Nationals -101 @ Pirates - I like Hernandez in this spot. The Pirates have young bats. And Livan is just the crafty pitcher that can toy with them. Duke is a gascan.[/B]

[B]Braves -115 @ Marlins - Miller walks to many guys. Kawakami is good enough to win this one. Braves bats will feast on the lefty. Diaz and Prado will have big games.[/B]

Reds +125 @ Cardinals - Great game. Arroyo against Garcia. The Reds are flying high. I would not have them as a dog in this one. More like a coinflip. If I had to play it would be the +125 first place Reds.

[B]Astros +132 @ D-Backs - Terrible line. myers has been great most of the year. The Astros are playing much better ball. They will hit Hudson. I am not sure the D-backs will hit Myers. Give me the doggie again.[/B]

Rockies +130 @ Padres - Cook vs who? If anyone can cap this game, I will tip my hat to them. No way I'm touching it.

Giants +135 @ Dodgers - Zito vs Billingsley. Tough game to play. Line looks spot on. The Giants have been playing well. But who knows with Zito. Gun to head I take Zito as the dog against the inconsistent Billingsley.


Jays +142 @ Yankees - Morrow's last start of the year. He's been brilliant. Nova has been very good for the Yankees. The Yankees will win this game. They will make Morrow throw a lot of pitches. He will give his all. But wont be enough.

Rays -195 @ Orioles - Garza against gascan Millwood, who actually pitched well last time. Baltimore is playing better of late. Can't play a -105 favorite on the road.

White Sox +136 @ Red Sox - Great pitching matchup here. Both guys didnt pitch brilliantly last time out though. How can you go against Clay at home though? Red Sox are fighting for their lives.

[B]Tigers +150 @ Royals - Bonderman is a gascan. The Royals can hit. Plus they have Zack on the hill. This is a no brainer for me.[/B]

Rangers +110 @ Twins Holland is back. He has talent, but hasnt showcased it yet. Blackburn is pathetic. I dont care ablut his last start. Rangers as a dog is a winner for me.

Angels +165 @ A's Gio has been great. But the A's a -175 favorite so late in the season against The Angels? Stay Away

Indians -102 @ Mariners - Indians with a nice comeback last night. Carmona has been ok..not very good. French has been solid. Coinflip game.
[B][COLOR="Navy"][SIZE="3"]

My plays: Royals -161 (4 units), Astros +132 (3 units), Braves -115 (3 units), Nationals -101 (2 units)[/SIZE][/COLOR][/B]

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Chicago Cubs (Day Game)

The Pirates are an abysmal road team. There is no denying that. I think they have won about 15 games all season on the road. I think they are approaching the dubious record of most road losses in a single season; not something this current roster wants to be associated with. But the crazy thing is that one third of those road wins have come against the Cubs, Wrigley. Its like a home away from home for the Pirates.

 I throw away all the Pirates early season failures. I actually throw away all poor teams early season failures come late August and September. The teams make up and mentality is totally different at this stage of the season. The rosters look completely different. Out are the underachieving, high priced veterans. In are the young, exciting, talented prospects. These kids know that this might be their one true opportunity to showcase themselves for the next season. They have everything to play for.

The Pirates have a roster comprised of very young and talented batters. Their top 3 in the order are sensational kids, that play the game the right way: hard. Jose Tabata, Neil Walker, and Andrew McCutchen are the real deal. These kids can flat out play. They get on base, they run, and hustle. Pedro Alvarez is another young kid who has all the talent in the world. He can rake.

The Chicago Cubs also have some of these young kids (Starlin Castro, Tyler Colvin) playing for them, but they also still have a lot of veterans on their roster: Alfonso Soriano, Xavier Nady, Aramis Ramirez, Marlon Byrd....guys that are assured rosters spots somewhere in baseball next year. The types of guys who you could see taking it easy on a hot August day, this late in the season, for a day game after getting drubbed the night before.

I really like the pitcher the Pirates are throwing out there today. James McDonald has all the talent in the world. A former pitching prospect for the Dodgers, he never really got a fair chance to shine. He has that chance in Pittsburgh. McDonals can flat out pitch. He can be nasty at time. A few starts back he struck out 6 of the first 7 batters (something like that). This is his big stage.

The cubs send starter-turned relief pitcher-turned back to start again Tom Gorzelanny to the hill. Gorzo is a solid, yet average, veteran pitcher. He is likely not to get destroyed, but he will never amaze you. He doesnt have PLUS stuff.

I think the young and loose Pirates will get to Gorzelanny early and often today. McDonald will pitch well enough to win.

The +170 is a bargain/steal in my eyes. The Cubs should never be a -180 favorite. And definitely not with Tom Gorzelanny on the mound. This isn't Mark Prior and Kerry Wood of 2003.

Pirates 6 Cubs 3

When I opened up my sports book to the baseball wagering page, one play in particular jumped out at me. The younger version of myself would have seen the line and put all my money down on one of the sides of that game. But the older version of me...the me who I am today...has built in (overtime) defense mechanisms to avoid the bad gambling habits of my young self. The line that basically poked me in the eye was: Philadelphia -135. I knew that Halladay was scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia, so a red flag went off in my...

When I opened up my sports book to the baseball wagering page, one play in particular jumped out at me. The younger version of myself would have seen the line and put all my money down on one of the sides of that game. But the older version of me...the me who I am today...has built in (overtime) defense mechanisms to avoid the bad gambling habits of my young self. The line that basically poked me in the eye was: Philadelphia -135. I knew that Halladay was scheduled to pitch for Philadelphia, so a red flag went off in my head immediately. The younger me would have seen the -135, remembered Halladay was pitching,put down an entire bankroll, and brag to my friends that I had the lock of the decade. But the older version saw the red flags and stopped myself from pulling the trigger on the Phillies. I started to investigate this intangible red flag. Why was Doc Halladay, one of the all time great pitchers, and having another fantastic year, such a cheap favorite tonight. I can not recall him ever being so cheap. Furthermore, why were the suddenly smoking hot, defending National League Champions, the power house Phillies only a -135 favorite? And more and more questions popped into my old mind. Didn't the Phillies just sweep the National League West leading Padres IN San Diego? Aren't the Phillies 100% healthy again, now that Utley and Howard are back in their lineup? So why are they not -175 favorites with Doc Halladay on the mound? So I thought to myself; maybe they are only -135 favorites because they have to travel, or because they are facing another playoff contender, with a great pitcher on the hill. But lo and behold I did some further research and found out that they were facing the Dodgers. The Dodgers that played in Los Angeles. So there was no travel at all. San Diego to Los Angeles isnt a real commute. So I checked to see who was scheduled to start for the Dodgers. It had to be their superstar young phenom, Clayton Kershaw, right? Thats why Halladay and the Phillies were only -135 favorites. That HAD to be the reason, right? No. Kershaw was not starting this game. And it wasn't even Ted Lilly starting. It was Hiroki Kuroda, a solid, yet not spectacular pitcher. So it had to be something else that warranted the Phillies to only be -135 favorites. I bet the Dodgers are right there in the playoff hunt. They must be red-hot. Right? Had to be! But lo and behold, to my amazement they Dodgers are falling out of the race pretty fast and are on a 2 game losing streak. Furthermore, the Dodgers just traded away one of the best right handed bats of all time, in Manny Ramirez, thus basically showing the world that they were giving up on the 2010 season. So I was forced to ask for the final time, Why the hell are the Phillies only a -135 favorite? And the only answer the "older" me could come up with was: DODGERS +125.


Good luck to everyone tonight with all your action. May all your wagers be winners. Well, unless of course, you are wagering on the Phillies.

A pretty big divisional game on ESPN tonight...

[B]Rays -136 (4 unit play)[/B]

Coming off that fantastic win last night, I really like the Rays in this spot. The Rays are playing at home and I feel  this is actually a very cheap line for them. They are sending james Shields to the hill tonight. Shields had been struggling, but has been brilliant his last 2 times out: both against good opponents Anaheim and Texas. In his last start, against the Angels, he struck out 10 batters. The Red Sox are sending John Lackey to the bump tonight. Lackey has been very inconsistent. He seems to follow up every good start with a clunker. He was very good in his last outing, but the Rays are not an easy team to reverse that trend against. They have some very good left handed bats with Crawford, Zobrist, and Pena. And right handed bat, Longoria can hit anyone. Last nights loss has to have a lingering effect on this Sox team. It's not a loss any team could just shrug off. The Red Sox were up 2-1 late in the game. They could, obviously, smell/taste being just 3 1/2 games behind TB. But then just like that, with 2 swings of the bat, one by B.J. Upton and one by Dan Johnson (who?), it was back to 5 1/2 games. The pressue is squarely on the Red Sox tonight. And its never easy playing under pressure. Especially when they are missing their heart and soul of Pedroia and Youkilis. The biggest problem for Boston not be their starter tonight, but will once again be the bottom half of their order. Last night, Lowell, Nava, Kalsih, and Hall were a combined 1 for 15. Thats not a typo. That definitely will not get it done tonight. Especially against a tough pitcher like Shields. He will be able to pitch around Ortiz and Beltre if the bottom of the Sox lineup remains the same. I fully expect the Red Sox to battle, but talent will come through in the later innings, and the home team Rays will just about put the Sox playoff chances to bed.

Final Score Prediction:

Rays 6 Red Sox 4

(Too close to play the plus money run line.)

Good luck to all followers.

Thanx to that huge 8th and 9th inning comeback by Atlanta, I actually won some money today! Could have been a big day if Chicago Cubs had come through.

Tonight...

[B]Rays -136 (4 unit play)[/B]

Coming off that fantastic win last night, I really like the Rays in this spot. Theyl are playying at home and I feel this is actually a very cheap line for them. They are sending james Shields to the hill tonight. Shields had been struggling, but has been brilliant his last 2 times out: both against good opponents Anaheim and Texas. In his last start, against the...

Good morning,

The last couple of days I preached to you about not settling on the huge favorite to bail you out this time of the year. The last 2 days saw an abnormal number of huge favorites lose. The Phillies lost as -330 favorites and as -180 favorites and at -160 favorites 3 days in a row. The Cardinals lost as -300 and -180 favorites during this current losing streak. The Tigers lost as a -175 favorite. I was on the dogs in most of those games. And for the games I wasn't on the dog...I merely stayed away from...

Good morning,

The last couple of days I preached to you about not settling on the huge favorite to bail you out this time of the year. The last 2 days saw an abnormal number of huge favorites lose. The Phillies lost as -330 favorites and as -180 favorites and at -160 favorites 3 days in a row. The Cardinals lost as -300 and -180 favorites during this current losing streak. The Tigers lost as a -175 favorite. I was on the dogs in most of those games. And for the games I wasn't on the dog...I merely stayed away from any action. I hope you adhered to the warnings and stayed away as well. Its not March, but the Ides of August/September still should cause for concern.


Today, with no big favorites on the board, I am going in a different direction. I'm actually handicapping the line and game. Haha. The 3 plays I like most today are the Rays -120, Pirates +150, Dodgers +135


I like the Rays today with Price on the bump at this cheap price. I think the Red Sox are still overvalued, well just because they are the Red Sox. Lester is a stud, but the Red Sox lineup isnt the same without Ellsbury, Pedroia, and Youkilis. Thats their 1,2,4 batters.If this was a Boston home game, I might be hesitant to bet against them. But not in Tampa. The Rays are a very good team...Scary good. David Price is their ace and he is downright nasty at times. The Rays lineup is very strong 1-9. When you have Bartlett batting 9th that says something about your lineup depth. Jaso has been getting on base at the top of the lineup. And not many teams have a better 2-3-4-5 with Zobrist, Crawford, Longoria, and Pena.


I am on the Pirates +150 today for a number of reasons. First when I capped the game I had it as Milwaukee -120. So I found tons of value right away when I saw the actual line. Secondly, the Brewers seemed lifelss yesterday. 3rd, I really dont like Marveson is any good, and the Pirates have a good, scrappy, young lineup. Finally, I really like this McDonald kid. He has very good stuff and can be a dominant K pitcher at time. And Milwaukee seems to K a lot with Braun, Fielder, and McGehee in the 3-4-5.

I love the Dodgers today at +135.. The Dodgers can smell the playoffs. They are not out of it yet. The beat up a very good pitcher in Gallardo yesterday. Ubaldo is tough, very tough. But as we have seen in the 2nd half, he is hittable. Kershaw as this big a dog in such a meaningful game is outrageous. He should handle the good Rockies left handed bats. Tulowitzki might be a problem, but if he handles the table setters, he should be able to pitch wisely/around Tulo. I feel the Dodgers will score a few runs off Ubaldo and a few off the Rockies pen as well. A few runs may be just enough for Kershaw tonight. Especially as the solid dog.

Good luck on all the wagers you decide to make today. But don't chase any losses. Use sound money management. And shop for the best possible lines!

Have a great day!

Well by now you all read yesterdays blog about not betting on the huge favorites playing against teams that have youngsters playing for their lives, teams that are playing spoiler, teams that are playing loose. Once again a prize fighter went down when the lowly Astros edged Doc Halladay and the might mighty Phillies. Many people I know adhered to my warnings. But still a number of people put money on the Phillies -330 money line in individual bets, and as the anchor of all their parlays. Some bettors even got greedy and took the Phillies on the run line at a steep price of -160. Not sure why you would take a HOME team that cant score, getting 1 less at bat on the run line ever. Let alone -160. But people fell for the due theory...or maybe just the better team HAS to win theory.

Well today there might be one even worse. Why is it worse? Well for one...the price is cheaper. Secondly, the team is looking to avoid an embarrassing, perhaps devastating 3 game losing streak to very inferior teams. Chris Carpenter and the Cardinals are -190 favorites looking to avoid a 3 game losing streak against Jordan Zimmerman and the lowly Nationals. The playoff contending (pretending?) Cardinals are coming off 2 disgusting losses to the Pittsburgh Pirates. They were very big favorites in both games. They are falling further behind the division leading Reds. Now they get to feast on a weak Nationals team, with a pitcher making his FIRST start after Tommy John surgery. -190 is expensive, but considering the situation, and the importance of this game for the Cardinals, with one of their [url="www.sportsbookreview.com/sbr/aces/"]Aces[/url] on the hill....it almost seems like a cheap lock.


But, once again, I will tell you to beware. At least the Phillies were -330 favorites against Houston. So the -330 scared some people off. But -190 is cheap enough to intrigue some bettors to wager on them. This game has disaster written all over it. The Cards are in a mini-hitting slump (just as Philly is), and Zimmerman has the talent to hold the Cards down. The Nationals are a loose team. They have some offensive talent with Zimmerman, Dunn, Morgan, and Desmond. They fight. The are playing spoiler now, and they will get up for a series (at home) against Big Bad Pujols and the Cardinals.


Once again I will leave off by saying:

By no means am I telling you that Washington will win. But what I am telling you is not to put all your money on a -190 favorite in this situation. As I tell fellow bettors: "Even the best teams in baseball lose 60+ games" and "even the best pitchers in baseball barely win 50% of the games they start".


I wish you luck with whatever you decide to do. Hopefully you learned something today.